Trump, Pakistan tease deal, but doubts remain

The United States and Iran appear once again to be on the brink of an agreement to end their monthslong conflict, with mediators and officials pointing to tangible progress. But what is currently on the table is not a comprehensive peace deal but a short memorandum of understanding — a first step designed to halt escalation and reopen negotiations.

Speaking to DW, Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East advisor and negotiator for the US State Department, said: “What you’ve done is buy yourself a ticket, on both sides, to a negotiation that is going to be long and tedious.” 

At the heart of the talks are deeply complex issues: Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, sanctions relief, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and broader questions of regional security. “All of these issues contain a universe of complexity and detail that will have to be ironed out,” Miller said. 

As much of the world grows optimistic about a breakthrough in the Middle East conflict, the reality in Lebanon tells a different story.

Israel, which is not a party to the US-Iran agreement, said it struck more than 70 sites in Lebanon, continuing its fight against the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Israel has clashed with Donald Trump over Washington’s demand that it reduce military action in Lebanon to allow Trump to reach a deal with Iran. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has suggested that the deal could also end the war in Lebanon, implying an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied areas in the south of the country. Isarel has repeatedly said it will not withdraw its forces.

On Saturday, the Lebanese army withdrew troops from a base in a southern village after Israeli troops advanced to a nearby area.

Deal or no deal? That’s the question this Sunday.

US President Donald Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Saturday that an initial deal to end the Iran war was scheduled to be signed on Sunday. Pakistan is mediating the deal between Washington and Tehran.

In a social media post, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea passage vital to the global supply chain, would reopen for all nations after the deal is signed. 

Iran closed the strait after the US launched its war against the country in February. The US then launched a counter-blockade of the strait in April, targetingall ships seeking to reach Iranian ports.

Pakistan’s Sharif said the two sides had agreed to a framework for a peace deal and that Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing on Sunday. That would be followed by technical-level talks.

But even before Trump’s post, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei cautioned against commenting on the timing of the signing. “The possibility of this happening in the coming days cannot be ruled out,” however, the signing “will not be tomorrow (Sunday),” he said. 

Good morning and welcome to DW’s coverage of the Iran war with some potentially hopeful news on the cards. 

Both the US and Iran have said that the proposed deal, known as a  memorandum of understanding (MoU) for peacemay be at hand But Iran has expressed skepticism over the timing of President Donald Trump’s timeline for signing the agreement.

Today, we will see if a deal finally comes to fruition, which would extend the April ceasefire between the US and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz gradually.

Here’s what you need to know going into the day: 

• Donald Trump claimed a deal with Iran “is scheduled to be signed” on Sunday.
• On Saturday afternoon, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said a deal would be finalized in the next 24 hours.
• Trump promised that the Strait of Hormuz would be open “TO ALL” right after the deal.
• Under the deal, Iran will not have a nuclear weapon but will not immediately hand over enriched material as Israel has insisted.
• Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said a peace deal is close but won’t be signed on Sunday.
• Israel’s military appears to be trying to make as many gains as possible in case a US-Iran agreement is reached, which is likely to include Lebanon.